Secret of BJPs Recent Electorial Victories

What is culminating in India is a clear divide between the states whose electoral results are driven by Hindutva agenda and the states whose voters vote on economic performance. BJP is likely to do well in the former category. What is left to be seen is what happens to the latter category?

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Developing a Divide between Hindutva States and Economic States!
Developing a Divide between Hindutva States and Economic States!

BJP has won recently in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. However, they have won in these two states for different reasons. The dynamics of Gujarat is characterized by:

  • Economically progressive state
  • Among the voters, economic as well as Hindutva considerations are foremost
  • Home state of Narendra Modi
  • Largely dissatisfied with current government’s economic policy

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On the other hand, the dynamics of Himachal Pradesh are:

  • Economically dogmatic state
  • Voters are more inclined towards Hindutva consideration rather than economic consideration
  • Satisfied with the current economic policy

In Gujarat, the resurgence of Congress is mainly due to the dissatisfaction of the Gujarati trading class over GST and overall economic doldrums under the incumbent central government. However, the Hindutva factor and the fact that Modi belongs to that state saw BJP scraping through.

However, in Himachal Pradesh, which is mainly dependent on tourism, there is not much complain with Modi’s economic policy and people of the state are firm believer that Modi is a crusader against corruption and Muslims and Pakistan.

The real test of BJP would be in the supposedly progressives states like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana. The psychographics of the voters in these states are mainly driven by economic consideration, rather than religious and caste based issues.

The economic landscape of India, currently, is characterized with:  

  • Slow growth as the official figures are obtained from a new research method, while the previous method shows GDP growth of less than 3 percent
  • Jobless growth: the little growth that is generated is not translating into employment generation
  • India’s Non Performing Assets (NPAs) are one of the highest in the world
  • Higher interest rates
  • Slower revenue growth

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Analysis of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Elections

What is culminating in India is a clear divide between the states whose electoral results are driven by Hindutva agenda and the states whose voters vote on economic performance. BJP is likely to do well in the former category. What is left to be seen is what happens to the latter category? Although, in the initial part of the present government’s tenure, the states in the latter category (such as Maharashtra) voted for BJP in the anticipation that Modi can repeat his Gujarat magic to the entire country, it remains to be seen what happens to these states after the spectacular fall of the Modi’s economic policy. The problem lies with the media, which are mostly bought over by BJP or their affiliates, propagating economic myths over facts.