Did you know that there have been several recessions in the US since the Great Depression? It is surprising to be sure, especially when you see the events covered in the media as one-time horrors.
A more modern definition of a recession that is used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Dating Committee, the group entrusted to call start and end dates of a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.”
In 2007, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), Jeremy J. Nalewaik, suggested that a combination of GDP and gross domestic income (GDI) may be more accurate in predicting and defining a recession. One of the deadliest recessions the world had witnessed after the 2nd World War. It was famously known as “The Post War Recession (November 1948 – October 1949). Lasted for 11 months. The magnitude reflected, as GDP declined to 1.1 % and unemployment rate was 5.9%. Another sharpest recession that shook the world was” The Iran Energy Crisis Recession” (July 1981 – Nov 1982). The GDP declined to 3 6% and unemployment rate was up to 10.8% Apart from these two, “The Gulf War Recession”, 2008 recession and “The 9/11 recession also shattered the world economy.
Indeed, all the mentioned recession had punched and distorted the nose of world economy but for the time being – not able to knocked down. But, this Chinese origin #Covid19 alias Corona will definitely crumble the world economy into pieces. The impact of this pandemic is going to shatter the most economically pride part (have enough part of world map) of the world.
Covid-19 has ransacked the European Union and US economy already. World’s largest democracy India is also badly affected. The effected and death toll are increasing rapidly. Even far east and Australia also not spared. While writing this peace the death toll is touching 70000 worldwide and India already contributed 115 to that. Now let’s talk about its impact on Indian economy. According to experts, in India itself more than 7 crores people will lose their jobs. Following industries will have to face the worst consequences. Industries like Apparel, Automotive Manufacturers & Suppliers, Consumer Durables, Lodging, Leisure & Tourism, Passenger Airlines, Global Shipping etc. The sectors like Beverages, Chemicals, Manufacturing, Media, Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas, Service Companies, Steel producers, Technology hardware etc. will also have some moderate effect. Even Construction, Defense, Packaging, Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Telecom sectors will also have some impact, may be little less. In fact, almost all sectors barring few will be facing the after-effect wrath of Covid-19.
The deadliest ever Economic crisis is coming. Another concern, after the pandemic, the blame game of International politics will begin. Already it started between China & US – Allied forces. This will aggravate soon and will add more salt to the already injured world economy. Again coming back to India. World’s leading rating agency Fitch now expects a drastic global recession this year and cut out GDP growth forecast for India to 2 percent for the fiscal year 2021 after lowering it to 5.1 percent previously, which would make it the slowest growth in India over the past 30 years.Indeed, the time for austerity in every aspect. Only concern is, crores of fellow brothers and sisters will lose their jobs; poor will become poorer, inequality of income will reach into zenith. Extremely apprehensive, will India again fall into that bracket, read #Underdeveloped from Developing one? Answer is blowing in the wind.
By Prof. Debanjan Banerjee
Author, Columnist, Speaker and Media Educator. HOD (Media Studies), NSHM Knowledge Campus, Kolkata, India. Head Examiner (Media), Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology, West Bengal, INDIA Visiting Professor, Satyajit Ray Film and Television Institute, Ministry of I & B, Govt. of India.
Can be contacted at [email protected]