According to research by rating firm Care Ratings, India’s pharmaceutical sector is looking at a USD 10 to 11 billion potential in the shape of COVID-19 vaccine supply in both local and international markets over the next three years.
However, Indian vaccine manufacturers are unlikely to receive the premium price enjoyed by US-based multinational businesses, which ranges from USD 15 to USD 25 per dosage, and their average realization is expected to stay between USD 3.25 and USD 3.50 per dose, according to the report.
According to the research, CARE Ratings estimates that the Indian vaccine makers would have a supply opportunity of at least USD 10-11 billion over the next three years (domestic plus export). According to CARE Ratings, by March 2022, the majority of domestic demand will have been met, and export prospects in high-income markets such as Europe, North America, and developed Asian nations would have been exhausted.
However, export potential in different African, Asian (excluding China and Japan), and South American nations, where vaccination rates are still very poor, are anticipated to be more than 1.25 billion doses, according to the report. Over 4.35 billion Covid-19 vaccination injections had been given globally as of August 10, 2021. More than half of the entire eligible population in the United States, China, and most European nations has received at least one dose of the vaccine.
More than 70% of the world’s population must be vaccinated, according to specialists in various infectious illnesses, in order to establish a safe environment from Covid-19, the rating agency stated.
India had delivered about 500 million (50 crores) Covid-19 vaccine doses as of August 10, 2021, and would need to provide at least another two billion vaccine doses. The rate of immunization in India has remained consistent at around 50-55 million doses per day, owing to high demand and insufficient supply (despite its size). According to the report, the Indian authority has authorized five vaccinations for emergency use authorization and another three are in various stages of approval.
Due to the fact that the majority of the Indian population is projected to be vaccinated by 2021, the opportunity for local pharmaceutical firms over this time period is estimated to be worth USD 4.6 billion. However, with increased exports, the figure is anticipated to rise to USD 4.9 billion in 2022.
Furthermore, due to the near-saturation of demand, sales opportunities are anticipated to decline to around USD 1.6 billion by 2023, resulting in a USD 10-11 billion potential for Indian vaccine makers between 2021 and 2023, according to Care Ratings.