Introduction: India’s growing population would be one of the biggest challenges coming in the way of all growth plans. India became Independent in 1947 with 350 Million Indians and has added almost a billion in 72 years a record by any standards and growing. The article while analysing this trend which would take India to disaster gives viable solutions in the form of use of Island, Wasteland, EEZ, encourage 5M persons to go abroad every year and with time be pioneer in Space to reach out to and take its people to go to any other planets.
Development vs Population: The growth of population with the advent of economic reforms is analysed as they could have a huge bearing on the overall prosperity of the nation. Higher number of persons could enhance the economic growth but have a highly negative impact on wealth distribution and will not be conducive people’s aspirations and business environment. The employment opportunity would go down on basis of the ratio of the citizens of India. The main objective of the article is to strategies and find out the hidden potential of India and utilize the sectors for sustainable employment growth and country development. At the current rate of growth, as per expert studies India’s population is likely to peak by 2047 at about 1.61 billion and then decline to 1.45 billion by 2100.
According to a study released in last year, India will add 10 crore people into the working age population by 2027, which is about five times the population of Australia. Further the report adds that India will need about 100 million jobs in the next 7 years, of these, around 80% or 78 million jobs would be needed to be generated in just 10 states — Uttar Pradesh (UP), Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar and Assam.
World Population Analysis: In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living and was estimated to have reached 7,844,700,000 people as of February 2021. The current average population increase is estimated at 81 million people per year. About 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.
India’s Population analysis: When one considers that approximately 770 million of India’s population is working age of 20 – 59, it becomes easier to understand where the distress caused by the COVID-19 outbreak is most concentrated. According to the Annual Status of Education Report (2018), 97% of Indian children between the ages of six and 14 were enrolled in school, with a substantial percentage going on to secure college degrees as well. As such, India’s youth enter the job market with specific expectations relating to their employment opportunities especially having spent significant time and resources toward their education.
When the economy is booming, young professionals seeking employment may even adopt a wait-and-watch approach as they line up the right opportunity. However, in times of economic crisis, educated workers end up taking whatever job they can find, regardless of how overqualified they may be for them. In doing so, they face the very real risk of endangering any prospect of a career and becoming caught in a cycle of moving from one dead-end job to another.
Challenges ahead: Talking about the population growth trajectory, the Economic Survey states “both the trajectory of population and population growth will vary across States. States ahead in the demographic transition will witness a continued deceleration in population growth and reach near-zero growth rate by 2031-41. The working age population will grow by roughly 9.7 million per annum during 2021-31 and 4.2 million per annum during 2031-41.
The RBI’s liquidity boosting measures have been welcome but there is little to suggest that a swift revival of India’s MSME sector, critical to boosting job creation, is on the cards.
In terms of sectors, four industries accounted for around 61% of jobs, led by IT (23%), banking (22%), auto (9%) and finance (7%). Textiles, which at one time was a leading employer, was fifth in the hierarchy with share of 2.4%. Ten industries saw a decline in headcounts.This included electrical, finance, banking, IT, FMCG, consumer durables, trading, chemicals, iron & steel, retail and insurance.
Even before the COVID-19 crisis, youth in Asia and the Pacific faced challenges in the labour market, resulting in high unemployment rates and large shares of youth excluded from both school and work.
Possible solution to the growing population:It is important to find a solution to this catastrophic situation. Here Secured Governance offers a strategy for taking some Hidden potential for promoting the growth and bringing the problem in some control. The strategy is to bring a self-sustainedeconomy by tapping the unused Wasteland, Island to bring up new Smart cities to give much needed long termemployment to solve the problem of surplus labour. The very formulation of Secured Governance “promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all” recognizes that economic growth will be inclusive only if it creates jobs and decent work.
- Islands are Prime Assets for Economic growth and employment opportunity: As we know in India there are more than 1,200 islands including 700 uninhabited islands, thus government could take a necessary step to allocate the island equally to all state governments for sustainable economic activity with the greatest growth potential. There would be gradual shifting of citizens to these Islands and we could expect these to be planned Greenfield Smart cities.
- Wasteland would also play a vital role as the country has over 17% of its land in this segment and if fraction of this is encouraged to be Smart cities there would be sustained growth and development for 200 years. There could be good growth centers and could accommodate the upcoming and presently excessive population in cities and towns.
- The secured governance concept offer a sustainable development model for government and societies can find approaches that will move towards all key goals – environmental protection, social wellbeing and economic development. Generally government need to be work in partnership with state level authorities to utilize the hidden potential of uninhabited islands. New businesses through private stakeholders are an important source of new investment. Attracting new businesses generates employment and increases the diversity and prosperity of the local economy. It would be a panacea for reduce unemployment rate and state government debt.
- Enhancing Overseas Indian for GDP growth and reduce Unemployment Rate: The trends of migration from and in India turned to be more dynamic than ever before. Much of the shortage is based on simple demography. Japan and many European nations, for instance, have had low birth rates for decades. In the United States, most baby boomers will have moved out of the workforce by 2030, but younger generations will not have had the time or training to take many of the high-skilled jobs left behind.
The talent shortage may be hard to see now, with daily headlines about how robots and artificial intelligence are making their way into a growing number of industries. And the study shows how, at least in 2020, there might even be a surplus of talent in Russia and China. But by 2030, Russia could have a shortage of up to 6 million people, and China could be facing a shortage twice as large. The United States could also be facing a deficit of more than 6 million workers, and its worse in Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil, each of which could have shortages of up to 18 million skilled workers.
India could become the next tech leader; the study suggest that the country could have a surplus of more than 1 million high-skilled tech workers by 2030.Young population is an asset only if it is educated, skilled and finds productive employment. If this happens then our dream of realising India’s potential to grow at 10% or more per annum for a substantial period can become a reality.
- EEZ Extended Economic Zone India has as area above Sea as it has land area over 2M Sq KMs of EEZ which should be effectively used along with the Islands.
- Space program in India is on par with the best and this lead should be taken forward to investigate outer space habitation with time. Even though it is a wild suggestion this would have great bearing for India’s requirements as the population is spiraling to bigger challenges and this give lasting solution in a century.
The doctrine of secured governance does not believe that dramatic changes can be achieved only through a revolution that requires upturning all the procedures evolved through years of efforts and experience. It realizes the tools for bringing about effective and sustainable changes are already available in the system. They can be made more effective by defining linkages, effective response mechanism and dynamic feedback systems. Emphasis is placed on defining relationship between sectors of growth, institutions and government to foster coordination and create an environment that improves the system through regional strategies, technology and by taking cognizance of the myriad of interdependencies.
As India has become wealthier, population of Overseas Indians was 32.14 million (13.46 million NRIs & 18.68 million PIOs) in 2020. The employment of Indian workers abroad helps earn foreign exchange and thereby adds to the foreign exchange reserves of the country. It may able C. be observed that there has been a steady increase in remittances from US$15.8 billion in 2001-02to US$76 billion in 2021.
- Every year around 3 to 5 million number of outflow work force will be increased through national skill development;
- The expected additional remittance would be US$20 billion (INR.1.46 lakh crore) at the CAGR 13.0%;
- Enhancing individual’s employability and ability to adapt to changing technologies and global labour market demands.
- Develop a high-quality skilled workforce/entrepreneur relevant to current and emerging global employment market needs;
- Set up law enforcement services in Indian emphasis with the permission of host countries to assist them to maintain their laws and policies in case if any Indian who involved in crime.
- Attracting investment in skill development.
A designated region intended to attract foreign investment, retain local students, build a regional reputation by providing access to high-quality education and training for both international and domestic student, and create a knowledge-based economy. A Knowledge HUB can include different combinations of domestic/international institutions, branch campuses, and foreign partnerships, within the designated region. Outbound Exchange Program wherein we send our students to associated universities or corporate houses for skill development and knowledge exchange. Inbound Exchange Program will facilitate initiatives for welcoming students from other countries to facilitate knowledge transfer targeting at least 10% of the students from other universities.
- Smart City Development for National growth and sustain employment opportunity: Globally urbanisation is ongoing trend which need a strategy design in the form of planned smart cities for proper settlement of people for sustainable economic growth of nation. The social process whereby cities grow and societies become more urban in India is occurring at a breakneck pace. The ratio of the world’s urban population is expected to increase from 55% in 2018 (some 4.2 billion people) to 68% by 2050, which will mean that the world’s urban population will nearly double. By 2100, some 85% of the population will live in cities, with urban population increasing from under 1 billion in 1950 to 9 billion by 2100. India’s urban population is expected to rise to 517 million by this current year and to break the breathtaking 700 million mark by 2050.
Micro Tech Global Foundation offers “Secured Governance” a novel strategy for the government to get all the infrastructure development with a negligible investment by the public. Much of the investments for Smart city development will come from Private sector wherein government and its agencies will act as facilitators. This will have a spiraling effect on Global Economy with a defined regions being developed as “Smart Cities or HUBs” and multiple HUBs connecting each other creating a Techno- Economic Corridor. The Mini HUBs and Nano HUBs will be spread over Semi Urban and village regions promoting Industrial development and adoption of modern amenities and technologies to generate additional employment in those areas with minimal rural urban migration and pay rich dividend to elite and rich investors.
Going ahead, more than 100 million jobs could be created in the next 10 years through Secured Governance novel strategy including Smart city development, Knowledge HUB for enhance overseas population and Island development for MSMEs and exploring tourism potential.
Our main goal is to raise standards of living and create new avenues for individuals to flourish their life, outlining policies aimed at strengthening financial support for families and children through providing sustainable job opportunity.There is lot of unlocked hidden potential present in India. Secured Governance system is equipped with higher degree of society participation in nation building Process. The strategycompliments the present PPP developmental model by ensuring balanced participation of the private and public sector taking advantage of value and valuation of infrastructure thereby yielding higher returns. This valuation of infrastructure, which grows many folds need to be shared by the society and Government to support economic development and ensuring employment growth.
Dr. P. Sekhar
Chairman, Unleashing India, Global Smart City Panel, MTGF