The global population at the end of the century could be 2 billion below the UN forecasts. According to research led by the University of Washington in the US and is published in the Lancet, the current world population is expected to increase and is expected to reach 9.6 billion in 2064 and by the end of the century, the population will decline to 8.8 billion.
According to the report, more than 20 countries, including Japan, Spain, Italy, and more will see that their population will demise by half, while the Sub- Saharan population will be triple in size in the next 80 years to around 3 billion.
The population of Japan is expected to fall by half by the end of the century and the population of Nigeria will be four times i.e., to almost 800 million in 2100.
Low Fertility and its Reasons
The factors that lead to shrinkage in the population are, as the women and girls are becoming more educated and are widening access to contraception. If these trends are imposed then higher growth will ensue.
For example, Saharan Africa’s population is expected to rise, its fertility rates are expected to decline from 4.6 births per woman in 2017 to 1.7 by 2100.
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Lead to Increased Ageing Population and Declined Working Population
The reports highlight that due to the lower fertility rate not only result in population changes but also result in the growth of the older population, which will have negative impacts on the economy and can pose a challenge in many countries.
According to the report, older people will overtake the young people as there will be around 2.4 billion people above the age of 65 by 2100 as compared to people under the age of 20 with 1.7 billion.
As per the forecasts, China’s working-age population is expected to decline from 950 million (as in 2017) to about 360 million (by 2100).
Similarly, India’s working-age population is expected to decrease from 762 million to about 580 million, while Nigeria’s working-age population is forecasted to increase from 86 million as in 2017 to 460 million in 2100.
The decline in the population will also pose for negative consequences and if the policymakers chose corrosive policies above embracing migration.
Christopher Murray, director of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle said, “However, a very real danger exists that, in the face of declining populations, some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences. It is imperative that women’s freedom and rights are at the top of every government’s development agenda.”
Stein Emil Vollset from IHME said, “While population decline is potentially good news for reducing carbon emissions and stress on food systems, with more old people and fewer young people, economic challenges will arise as societies struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers, and countries’ abilities to generate the wealth needed to fund social support and healthcare for the elderly are reduced.”
Further Policies to Adopt
According to authors migration is important for the future as, without more liberal immigration policies, it is forecasted that the population of 23 countries like Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain will be halved.
Murray said, “The best solutions for sustaining current population levels, economic growth and geopolitical security are open immigration policies and social policies supportive of families having their desired number of children.”
In this study the authors considered different modes, they used data from past, considered the factors of fertility changes, etc. and this report also suggests that the population would be below a report by the UN Population Division in 2017 which suggest that global population of 10 billion by 2025 and 11 billion by 2100.